The stakes are high going into the third leg, but Ken Read is keeping his money safely tucked away in his pocket.
“If I were a betting man I’d steer right away from this one,” said the PUMA skipper. “I absolutely could not pick a favourite for this leg.”
They were sentiments repeated over and again by each of the skippers as droves of Indian media turned their spotlights on the Cochin race village.
The lines of enquiry ranged from the ethnic make-up of teams to their thoughts on the cost of the sport. The answers were issued effectively and intelligently but, when it came to predicting the outcome of the 1,950-nautical mile leg to Singapore, there was head scratching all around.
It might have been modesty, a desire not to give too much away even, but the general feeling was that there are a lot of unknowns on the horizon.
Not least among them is the route. This fleet, for the second straight leg, is visiting a new stopover and the quirks of the passage are numerous.
“This is three races in one, I think,” said Read. “This is a race to the end of Sri Lanka, a race across, and a race up the Strait (of Malacca). There could be restarts all over the place based on the weather information we have so far. It is a very tricky leg ahead and it’s pretty tough to try and figure out how it will go.”
Torben Grael, Read’s equivalent on Ericsson 4, added: “I think there will be a lot of challenges, especially in the Strait where there are sandbanks and commercial shipping traffic and lots of other boats. It could be decided by luck or a cloud.”
The gamblers’ decision is certainly not helped by the incomplete pace picture. Who, for example, has the quickest boat in the expected light, upwind conditions?
'We haven't seen the fleet racing upwind in light air yet'
“I don’t think we have seen the fleet racing upwind in light air yet,” said Green Dragon skipper Ian Walker. “We had the first in-port race where obviously Telefonica did very well, but on the other hand Ericsson had a bad start. I’m sure Ericsson will be fast, PUMA seem to go pretty well in the light and Telefonica will be competitive as well.
“We don’t know where we will sit in the mix going upwind, that’s something we have to learn. We did a lot of sailing with PUMA and Delta Lloyd coming into Cochin and there didn’t seem to be much between us. PUMA had the ability to fly their code zero higher up the wind range so if we get a lot of 10-knot sailing that might play into their hands a bit.”
A key area of the winning boat’s strategy will be the configuration of their yacht.
Read mulled over the possibilities. “Who is set up to go upwind with their masthead genoa? That’s a big question,” he said. “How are people set up displacement-wise? Is someone going to go ultra light on this leg and give up the middle portion (of the race, where the wind is expected to be a little stronger) in order to excel on the first and last portions? Are people going to go heavy and aim at the middle portion. There are so many variables and it’s fascinating.”
Walker added: “We can’t afford to go super light because we have a light bulb (only Team Russia had a lighter bulb ahead of the leg one start. The other six were all within 100 kilograms of the 7.4 tonne maximum) and we need to have enough weight to stack to generate maximum righting moment. If you had a maximum weight bulb you would be pretty tempted to go super light for this leg.”
There are even differences in opinion when it comes to how the race will be won. Bouwe Bekking, the Telefonica Blue skipper, thinks differences in boat speed will be marginal, placing extra emphasis on the guys in the navigation station.
“The guys who make the right calls will win it,” he said. “I don’t think we will see anyone smoking away from the rest. The boats are all very close, I think.”
Walker, though, believes differences in boat speed will be important early on. “I think it will be boat speed in the first week and then it depends if we restart again in the Straits,” he said. “That doesn’t mean there won’t be a lot of gains and losses and transitions in the clouds.”
In all, it is a puzzle with a lot of missing pieces that can only be picked up along the route. Until then, it’s head scratching all around.