Four boats have now been spat out of the Southern Ocean – goodbye Pacific, hello Atlantic; adiós cold, hola hot (eventually), adeus low pressure, olá high pressure – say hello, and wave goodbye. Cape Horn was both an end, a rite of passage, and a beginning. The longest leg is almost done; the longest sprint - to Rio – has just begun.
An overjoyed Magnus Olsson and his crew aboard Ericsson 3, led Ericsson 4 around Cape Horn just after midday yesterday. Torben Grael and company were just two hours and 26 minutes behind after 31 days of sailing. And remember that on day 19 - on the other side of the Pacific - these boats were 32 minutes apart with Ericsson 4 ahead, and now, after 13 days, more than 4,000 miles and one of the most spectacular strategic moves in this or any other race, it came down to a gain of a little under three hours.
Behind this pair, Ken Read and PUMA picked up the points for third place at 20:46 ZULU last night, with Green Dragon chasing them round at 02:15 ZULU this morning. Everyone but Telefonica Blue was now headed home.
At 10:00 ZULU this morning, Ericsson 3 led her teammate north-east towards the Falklands in a solid, 20 knot westerly breeze. And despite some serious squeeze box action overnight, she still had a lead of 45 miles. PUMA had just cleared the Le Maire Strait and had set off in pursuit, with the Green Dragon inbound. Only Telefonica Blue now remains in the Pacific, victims of a broken forestay and their southern move off New Zealand. But they are still working hard, saiilng boats and making videos.
When we left the fleet, Ericsson 3 was just short of Cape Horn. Almost as soon as she had picked up the points from the scoring gate, she gybed, turning north-east towards the Le Maire Strait, the passage between Tierra del Fuego and the Isla de los Estados. This is a notoriously tricky channel, with potentially strong current and high mountains on either side – but it saves miles if you want to go west of the Falklands. And Ericsson 3 blasted through there quite happily yesterday afternoon, with 25 knots of west-southwesterly breeze. Then, 10 miles north of the Strait and just after the 19:00 ZULU Position Report, the wind dropped away to nothing, and they sat, motionless.
Torben Grael and his team aboard Ericsson 4 had rounded Cape Horn a little further offshore than the leaders. They gybed just before the scoring gate, and lined up to go through the Strait. They were not far from the entrance when Ericsson 3 came to a grinding halt. Although we still don’t have wind data from Ericsson 4, it looks like she also had a clean run through the passage – closing to within 10 miles of her sistership. And then, she too, hit the hole and came to a crashing halt.
Both boats crawled north any way they could, and Ericsson 4 got the Distance to Leader (DTL) down to six miles. But it was Ericsson 3 that broke free first, just before the 01:00 ZULU Position Report. And once she was back in the 20 knot westerly, hay was being made while the sun shone. She got two full hours before Ericsson 4 got clear, and the miles were piling back on the leaderboard all the time.
The net result was almost neutral. Ericsson 3’s lead was quickly back up to the 50ish-mile advantage that she held on the approach to the Horn. PUMA appeared to be following the same pattern – gaining miles until she hit the light spot to the north of the Strait, and then watching them pour away. And again the net effect appears to be even – give or take 10 miles or so. And meanwhile, the Dragon was entering the Strait in PUMA’s wake at 10:00 ZULU this morning.
The next hurdle is the Falkland Islands. The front three look to be headed inside, between the islands and mainland South America. They are holding the westerly breeze feeding between the top of the low pressure they’ve just left behind to the south, and a small high pressure to their north, centred off the Golfo San Jorge. And it’s that high pressure that will control the race for the short to medium term.
Bouwe Bekking speculated from Telefonica Blue this morning on whether Green Dragon would, “go wide around the Falklands, and maybe keep better breeze than the leaders. They have nothing to lose, so I expect something in that direction.” It certainly looked like that was the way the Dragon was headed yesterday evening, as they set up a long way south of Cape Horn, leaving open the option of going east of the Falklands.
She adjusted her course once she was through the scoring gate, however, and started to follow the others towards the Le Maire Strait. It remains to be seen if she’ll do the same thing once she’s out the other side. The Predicted Route still thinks she should go east of the Falklands – some legendary passes have been made using that option. BrunelSunergy and Chessie Racing went from the back of the fleet to the podium in 1997-98, and while nothing like that is on the cards this time around, they could make smaller gains, as did djuice and AMER SPORTS ONE in 2001-02.
Looking further ahead, that dominant high pressure is going to spread itself across the race track in three days time, leaving only a narrow channel of headwinds off the coast of Uruguay – just at the point where the favourable, north-going Malvinas Current fades out... to be replaced by the unfavourable, south-going Brazil Current. Plenty more golf in this hole.